Mark Stinchcombe's Betting Tips for Monday's World Cup Action

A very one-sided affair on the cards here with Spain priced at just 1/9 to win with Cape Verde 33/1 to cause a shock upset. As a result, Spain are forecasted to score at least three goals and with doubts surrounding Lamine Yamal’s fitness, the attention turns to main striker Mikel Oyarzabal.

The Real Sociedad man has a terrific record for the national team with 25 goals in 53 caps including 13 goals in his last 12 starts for the national side. He gets plenty of service from his team-mates, getting off 30 shots in his last 12 competitive starts since becoming first-choice, and as a result is hitting the target with regularity, landing Over 1.5 shots on goal in five of his last nine.

Another playerwho’s output infront of goal has increased is wonderkid Pedri. He’s had 19 shots in his last 11 competitive starts, hitting two or more seven times. Given Spain are expected to rack up the shots as a result of their huge supremacy, and with Oyarzabal only best price 4/7 to score anytime, getting 3/1 he scores, hits the target twice and Pedri has two shots using the OddsChecker bet builder tool, looks like a great way to play this.

Recommended bet: Mikel Oyarzabal anytime goalscorer, Over 1.5 shots-on-target & Pedri Over 1.5 shots @ 2/1 with bet365 (1pt)

It could be dangerous to oppose Egypt given their recent defensive prowess. They lost just 2-1 to Brazil last week, held Spain to a 0-0 draw in Catalonia, have kept clean sheets against Russia and Saudi Arabia, whilst only conceding once in each game versus Senegal and Nigeria in 2026. As a result, it might take Belgium longer than expected to break the deadlock as odds-on favourites which could result in them racking up the shots.

Egypt shipped 37 shots across the two games against Brazil and Spain. Kevin De Bruyne looks an excellent candidate to find the target with an effort having had over 0.5 shots on target in 13 of his last 14 competitive appearances. Jeremy Doku is another, having finished the season in fine form for his club, at national team level he’s found the target in five of his last seven competitive internationals.

Just behind those two, Youri Tielemans loves to let fly and has had two or more shots in nine of his last 11 competitive appearances. Just taking him for one shot alongside De Bruyne and Doku hitting the target pays 11/5.

Recommended bet: Kevin De Bruyne and Jemery Doku Over 0.5 shots-on-target and Youri Tielemans Over 0.5 shots @ 11/5 with bet365. (1pt)

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Despite Uruguay being odds-on at 4/9, I’m not sure I can trust them to win here. Especially with the issues in attack with the squads two top scorers. Darwin Nunez and Giorgian de Arrascaeta only have 13 goals each to start with, and Nunez hasn’t started a competitive game since February with Karim Benzema taking his foreigner position at club side Al Hilal, while de Arrascaeta has picked up an injury and is doubtful to see any minutes.

They are however very strong defensively, where they conceded just 12 times in 18 games in qualifying. It could be a case of not knowing what we’ll get with Saudi Arabia given they only appointed a new manager in Greek coach Georgios Donis in April. His three games in-charge have yielded two clean sheets and that’s somewhat in keeping with Saudi Arabia’s low scoring matches previously. 10 of their last 15 competitive games have finished Under 2.5 goals including all four matches in last summers Gold Cup here in the USA and Canada.

13 of Uruguay’s last 16 matches have seen fewer than three goals and across all matches, they’ve had an incredible seven goalless draws in their last 18. A low scoring game looks on the cards here.

Recommended bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (1pt)

Given all the troubles surrounding Iran, I’m surprised they are odds-on at 10/11 here. They also left out striker Sardar Azmoun who has 57 goals in 91 appearances for his country and played a big role in qualifying where he scored eight goals.

Defence has been an issue as well, having conceded 25 goals in 29 competitive games under current manager Amir Ghalenoei despite being odds-on favourites in 22 of those matches - 15 times 1/3 or shorter. They’ve kept just 12 clean sheets and conceded multiple goals to the likes of minnows Tajikistan, Krygyzstan, North Korea and Hong Kong.

There is also a potential ill-discipline problem having picked up six red cards since the beginning of 2024. New Zealand only had to play five games to qualify and given the biggest price they were was 1/20, it was smooth sailing as they won all five by an aggregate score of 27 – 1. They’ve played plenty of friendlies in the meantime, predominantly as big underdogs, and whilst they’ve often managed to keep the scoreline close, we don’t want to read too much into friendlies.

I think the best way to play this is to back goals. 18 of Iran’s last 29 competitive games have gone Over 2.5 goals and we know their defence can’t be trusted and for New Zealand, 12 of their last 20 games have seen three or more goals. Based on the odds this is the easiest game for both teams in the group and I wonder if that will lead us to a more open game than the odds suggest.

Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 6/4 (1pt)